Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.375316 0.428630 0.486519 0.554006 0.630488 0.714436 0.813535
2025-08-24 0.296225 0.366405 0.448530 0.551589 0.677329 0.825626 1.013689
2025-08-31 0.236947 0.315342 0.413581 0.545411 0.717371 0.933738 1.226339
2025-09-07 0.200149 0.285200 0.398787 0.560980 0.785994 1.086435 1.517320
2025-09-14 0.160560 0.244211 0.362910 0.542692 0.807049 1.180284 1.745854
2025-09-21 0.133229 0.215489 0.339058 0.536832 0.843857 1.300393 2.028335
2025-09-28 0.110714 0.189850 0.315322 0.526890 0.872530 1.412066 2.314290
2025-10-05 0.098226 0.177832 0.310525 0.545303 0.947305 1.603392 2.749307
2025-10-12 0.084753 0.161680 0.296224 0.545520 0.991964 1.752127 3.135809
2025-10-19 0.074644 0.149639 0.286909 0.552573 1.048824 1.928032 3.591424
2025-10-26 0.067126 0.141052 0.282317 0.567181 1.120833 2.138975 4.136110
2025-11-02 0.057056 0.125628 0.262367 0.549529 1.129891 2.236931 4.486728
2025-11-09 0.047233 0.109194 0.238357 0.521282 1.116682 2.296106 4.782025
2025-11-16 0.040725 0.098648 0.224622 0.511871 1.140046 2.429712 5.243322
2025-11-23 0.035114 0.089033 0.211251 0.501050 1.158891 2.557054 5.710673
2025-11-30 0.031828 0.084248 0.207781 0.511635 1.225857 2.793667 6.441235
2025-12-07 0.027113 0.075002 0.192431 0.492270 1.222496 2.878803 6.855069
2025-12-14 0.023788 0.068635 0.182852 0.485049 1.246210 3.027046 7.430897
2025-12-21 0.020777 0.062481 0.172713 0.474692 1.260685 3.155953 7.979711
2025-12-28 0.019343 0.060417 0.172731 0.490333 1.342056 3.452849 8.967196
2026-01-04 0.017395 0.056459 0.167009 0.489797 1.381860 3.654315 9.748476
2026-01-11 0.015911 0.053590 0.163797 0.495615 1.439404 3.907636 10.694073
2026-01-18 0.014816 0.051706 0.163069 0.508366 1.517839 4.224759 11.846228